In 1993, Canadians became concerned about the amount of debt its federal government was accumulating. The debt/GDP ratio had risen to 68% and 35% of all revenue was going to pay interest on the debt. It was time to get the financial house in order.
Over the next few years, a number of unpopular measures were instituted. The Goods/Services Tax was introduced; the federal government stopped cost sharing with the provinces for health and social services; Employment Insurance eligibility was curtailed. For a dozen years (1997-2008), the Canadian federal government ran a surplus. The debt/GDP ratio fell to 29%, by far the lowest of the G7 countries.
Canadians, as usual, took these changes with stoicism, perhaps even with some satisfaction. There was grumbling about the GST, but not many demonstrations. Part of the reason was that the increased burden of providing services was absorbed by the Provinces; and the cutbacks were followed by a period of relative prosperity, during which the economy grew.
During the current recession, the Canadian federal debt/GDP ratio has climbed back to 38%. The situation in all other developed countries seems much worse. In the U. S., it sits at 70%; (100%, if you count debt to the Federal Reserve). Some European countries have debt over 100% of GDP.
The Canadian and U. S. federal figures, of course, don't show the debt of the Provinces/States. The Provinces of Ontario and Quebec have fared more poorly than the western provinces, as the Canadian economy has shifted from manufacturing to resources. Down the road, they may face more austerity.
In the U. S., many states are struggling with their budgets. Sadly, in Wisconsin, the first remedy is an attack on the collective bargaining rights of the public employees. Turning Wisconsin into a "right-to-work" state (union membership not required, regardless of vote) will not help the people of Wisconsin.
The solution to U. S. debt woes is tax reform; an honest, perhaps unpopular, review of entitlement programs; as well as the question of how much world-policing can they afford. For all the complaining about taxes, U. S. tax rates are low. Such deductions as mortgage interest are of most benefit to the wealthy. And why mortgage interest any more than rent? Most developed countries have some form of value-added or federal sales tax. There are bound to be unpopular choices, but they are much better than attacking middle-class workers.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Pension Perils
Some say that I'm lucky to be retired and have an employment pension. I agree. My complaint is that my pension benefits seem to be deteriorating bit by bit.
I retired at a time when my employer was downsizing and the number of retirees suddenly increasing. The Pension Board of Trustees announced that they could no longer afford the dental plan. I could purchase Blue Cross dental insurance if I wanted. Shortly after, the Extended Health Care annual deductible was increased from $30 to $250.
The latest revelation from the Pension Trustees is that most of the group benefits are being eliminated, effective April, 2012. This includes the Pension Plan portion of the Medical Services Plan premiums, which will increase my monthly payments from $45 to $109 ($768 annually); and Extended Health Care for spouses/dependents. The latter covers 70% of the cost of prescription drugs, but it looks like I'll have to purchase more Blue Cross insurance if I want to include my wife's needs. Group life insurance is also being eliminated, although I lost this a few years ago when I turned 65. Those 60-65 will have to buy their own insurance (expensive when you are no longer in the larger pool of younger employees).
These benefits were promised, and we thought we were paying for them through years of contributing to the Pension fund. We were assured that they would be there, and that the Plan was prudently administered. The current newsletter states that the basic pension plan is secured and assured for life. Unfortunately, that only means if nothing upsets the projections.
In reality, the Pension Board can't assure the pension. Unforeseen events can bring it down. Pension payout projections depend on forecasting the amount of contributions, the amount of benefit payments, and the amount of investment income.
When the BC Liberals reduced the size of Provincial Government in 2002-2003, the amount of contributions declined and the benefit payments dramatically increased. This resulted in the elimination of dental coverage and the increased Extended Health Care deductible. The current round of reductions is the result of mismanagement of the fund and a loss of $2.5 billion (14% of fund) in the economic downturn of 2008-2009. Obviously not prudent management. Although it has recovered somewhat, the amount of the Pension fund is still less than it was in 2007.
The consolation we are left with is that other major pension plans in BC are having to make similar changes.
I retired at a time when my employer was downsizing and the number of retirees suddenly increasing. The Pension Board of Trustees announced that they could no longer afford the dental plan. I could purchase Blue Cross dental insurance if I wanted. Shortly after, the Extended Health Care annual deductible was increased from $30 to $250.
The latest revelation from the Pension Trustees is that most of the group benefits are being eliminated, effective April, 2012. This includes the Pension Plan portion of the Medical Services Plan premiums, which will increase my monthly payments from $45 to $109 ($768 annually); and Extended Health Care for spouses/dependents. The latter covers 70% of the cost of prescription drugs, but it looks like I'll have to purchase more Blue Cross insurance if I want to include my wife's needs. Group life insurance is also being eliminated, although I lost this a few years ago when I turned 65. Those 60-65 will have to buy their own insurance (expensive when you are no longer in the larger pool of younger employees).
These benefits were promised, and we thought we were paying for them through years of contributing to the Pension fund. We were assured that they would be there, and that the Plan was prudently administered. The current newsletter states that the basic pension plan is secured and assured for life. Unfortunately, that only means if nothing upsets the projections.
In reality, the Pension Board can't assure the pension. Unforeseen events can bring it down. Pension payout projections depend on forecasting the amount of contributions, the amount of benefit payments, and the amount of investment income.
When the BC Liberals reduced the size of Provincial Government in 2002-2003, the amount of contributions declined and the benefit payments dramatically increased. This resulted in the elimination of dental coverage and the increased Extended Health Care deductible. The current round of reductions is the result of mismanagement of the fund and a loss of $2.5 billion (14% of fund) in the economic downturn of 2008-2009. Obviously not prudent management. Although it has recovered somewhat, the amount of the Pension fund is still less than it was in 2007.
The consolation we are left with is that other major pension plans in BC are having to make similar changes.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
For All Seasons
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| Thomas Cromwell (1485-1540) |
I am descended from Thomas' sister Katherine Cromwell. Although Katherine's husband was Morgan ap Williams, her son Richard preferred the Cromwell association so much that he adopted his Mother's name (and his descendants kept it).
Katherine's grandson Henry Cromwell was grandfather (through his son Robert) of Oliver Cromwell (1599-1658), Lord Protector of England. Henry's great granddaughter Edith Cromwell (through his son John and grandson Richard) joined her brothers in Maryland and married Christopher Gist, my 9X great grandfather.
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| Christopher Gist, George Washington |
Christopher and Edith (Cromwell) Gist's grandson, also Christopher Gist, was a scout for George Washington; and in turn grandfather of George Gist (Cherokee Native name Sequoyah), who developed a syllabary of the Native language.
My 5X great grandmother Mary Gist, also descended from Christopher and Edith (and second cousin to Sequoyah) married James Stevenson (1754-1845), who served in the Revolutionary War at the Battle of King's Mountain. Mary's granddaughter Mary Stinson (shortened from Stevenson) married John White (1807-1857), had eleven children, including my gg grandfather Robert White (1844-1938).
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| James Stevenson |
As well as Thomas Cromwell, "A Man for All Seasons" also includes Anne Boleyn, my 1st cousin 14X removed. We are both descended from Thomas Howard (1443-1524), 2nd Duke of Norfolk, his daughter and my 13th great grandmother Katherine Howard being sister to Anne Boleyn's mother Elizabeth. I have the same relationship to Henry VIII's fifth wife, Catherine Howard, daughter of Thomas Howard's son Edmund.
Unfortunately for Anne, Catherine, and Thomas Cromwell, they all lost their heads at the Tower of London; Anne and Catherine for adultery (treason) and Thomas for mismanaging Henry's fourth marriage to Anne of Cleves. My own ancestor, Katherine, was widowed in 1531 by the execution of her husband Rhys ap Griffith Fitzuryan, also at the Tower for conspiring against the King.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Gunplay at San Francisco
My grandfather, James A. Cowsill, Sr., was born in Cleveland, Ohio, in 1883. A few years later, he and his family moved to Washington, DC. Shortly after the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, he came to California to work as a bricklayer.
My cousin came across this newspaper article from 1909, featuring some fun he had during his bachelor days.
He married my grandmother in 1913 and reformed his wild ways.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Left Too Long
Three factors have to be considered in establishing a national health care plan: (1) Who is to be covered; (2) The quality of care; (3) Cost. Unfortunately, as (1) and (2) increase, so does (3). The U. S. is now faced with a difficult debate about quality of health care, coverage, and cost, at a time when the percentage of seniors (who consume a majority of services) is rising. They have left it too long.
Fortunately for Canada, some of the contentious issues were decided forty years ago. It has universal health care coverage for illness and injury, and participation is mandatory. It is not faced with the dilemma of having 15% of the population without coverage. The young pay premiums, thereby effectively subsidizing the more expensive costs of seniors; and issues such as pre-existing conditions don't arise.
Extending coverage to previously uninsured in the U. S. increases costs. For those who choose not to insure until they have a medical problem, the cost can be prohibitive; and to provide them with the same cost coverage as those who have always carried insurance, unfairly increases the cost for the latter. In an aging population, the outlook is unpleasant. Therefore, the new health care legislation made private health insurance mandatory.
Of course, people don't like to be told what to do, particularly when it means higher costs. But you can't have your cake and eat it, too.
It's possible that health care costs might be reduced. Many of the tasks performed by doctors; e. g., vaccinations, prescription renewals, review of routine medical tests, and physical exams, might be conducted by lesser trained health care practitioners. However, the number of procedures requiring high-trained specialists will probably grow.
The best choice for the U. S. would be to have a public option to private insurance, with assistance for low-income persons. The plan should be mandatory and tax-deductible, leveling the burden, making coverage universal, and eliminating the issue of pre-existing conditions. Unfortunately, it looks like the disagreements will go on and on, given the number of competing interests, and the ability of these interests to promote dissent, rather than to resolve it.
Fortunately for Canada, some of the contentious issues were decided forty years ago. It has universal health care coverage for illness and injury, and participation is mandatory. It is not faced with the dilemma of having 15% of the population without coverage. The young pay premiums, thereby effectively subsidizing the more expensive costs of seniors; and issues such as pre-existing conditions don't arise.
Extending coverage to previously uninsured in the U. S. increases costs. For those who choose not to insure until they have a medical problem, the cost can be prohibitive; and to provide them with the same cost coverage as those who have always carried insurance, unfairly increases the cost for the latter. In an aging population, the outlook is unpleasant. Therefore, the new health care legislation made private health insurance mandatory.
Of course, people don't like to be told what to do, particularly when it means higher costs. But you can't have your cake and eat it, too.
It's possible that health care costs might be reduced. Many of the tasks performed by doctors; e. g., vaccinations, prescription renewals, review of routine medical tests, and physical exams, might be conducted by lesser trained health care practitioners. However, the number of procedures requiring high-trained specialists will probably grow.
The best choice for the U. S. would be to have a public option to private insurance, with assistance for low-income persons. The plan should be mandatory and tax-deductible, leveling the burden, making coverage universal, and eliminating the issue of pre-existing conditions. Unfortunately, it looks like the disagreements will go on and on, given the number of competing interests, and the ability of these interests to promote dissent, rather than to resolve it.
Monday, January 10, 2011
You Remember Some Things
To quote Forrest Gump, "It's funny how you remember some things, but some things you can't". Some things that you do remember are assassinations of prominent persons. I'll probably remember the shooting in Tucson this past weekend and the circumstances surrounding it.
In October 1963, U. N. Ambassador Adlai Stevenson was jeered, spit upon, and hit by a sign during a United Nations Day speech in Dallas, Texas. A few weeks later, President Kennedy visited Dallas in an attempt to improve his popularity in the state.
I was at UCLA at the time, and we wondered how the President would be received in Dallas. At about 9:30 am, I was listening to a lecture in American Literature on "The Great Gatsby". The discussion turned to the sacrifices that persons in public office sometimes make, at great cost to themselves and their families. When I got back to my fraternity house at 10:00 am, Lowell Hahn came in and said, "Did you hear the news. Kennedy's been shot". We didn't believe him; it was Lowell's idea of a joke. Then Al Bock came downstairs with a radio, and said, "He's dead". The University closed; we were left to reflect.
On the afternoon of April 4, 1968, I was working at Southern Pacific Railroad at the foot of Market Street in San Francisco. Sometime in the early afternoon, word came that Martin Luther King had been shot in Memphis. A little later, someone said that a riot had started up Market Street and was moving towards us. Most of the office left. At 5:00 pm, however, I found it normal on the street. I wondered if there would be trouble in Oakland, a largely black neighborhood that the bus passed through on my way home to Berkeley. Again, nothing.
When I walked into my apartment, my roommate said, "He's dead". I took the letter that I had written to my draft board two days earlier, expressing my opinion about the war and the draft, but which I had been undecided about posting, and put it in the mailbox. A small protest. The next day, of course, much larger protests took place across the country.
Two months later, June 4, 1968, I voted in the California Democratic primary between Eugene McCarthy and Robert Kennedy. I had voted for McCarthy, but also supported Kennedy. A year earlier, I had shook Kennedy's hand during a rally, but had been a little disappointed with his speech, in which he only promised "to do better" in Vietnam. Gene McCarthy seemed less equivocal. I watched Kennedy give his victory speech in Los Angeles around midnight, got ready for bed, when shouting broke out, "The Senator has been shot". For a few moments, it wasn't clear which Senator they meant. Two days later, Robert Kennedy died in hospital.
As with the assassination attempt in Tucson, political feelings were running high in the 1960's. Issues of civil rights, war, free speech, and role of government divided the U. S. left and right. These events tend to leave their marks on the public psyche. In most instances, these and those which followed, the perpetrator was a young male, alienated, angry, confused, lashing out against his circumstances. Unfortunately, he may sometimes have been set off by the rhetoric and bombast of others. You wonder if we ever move forward.
In October 1963, U. N. Ambassador Adlai Stevenson was jeered, spit upon, and hit by a sign during a United Nations Day speech in Dallas, Texas. A few weeks later, President Kennedy visited Dallas in an attempt to improve his popularity in the state.
I was at UCLA at the time, and we wondered how the President would be received in Dallas. At about 9:30 am, I was listening to a lecture in American Literature on "The Great Gatsby". The discussion turned to the sacrifices that persons in public office sometimes make, at great cost to themselves and their families. When I got back to my fraternity house at 10:00 am, Lowell Hahn came in and said, "Did you hear the news. Kennedy's been shot". We didn't believe him; it was Lowell's idea of a joke. Then Al Bock came downstairs with a radio, and said, "He's dead". The University closed; we were left to reflect.
On the afternoon of April 4, 1968, I was working at Southern Pacific Railroad at the foot of Market Street in San Francisco. Sometime in the early afternoon, word came that Martin Luther King had been shot in Memphis. A little later, someone said that a riot had started up Market Street and was moving towards us. Most of the office left. At 5:00 pm, however, I found it normal on the street. I wondered if there would be trouble in Oakland, a largely black neighborhood that the bus passed through on my way home to Berkeley. Again, nothing.
When I walked into my apartment, my roommate said, "He's dead". I took the letter that I had written to my draft board two days earlier, expressing my opinion about the war and the draft, but which I had been undecided about posting, and put it in the mailbox. A small protest. The next day, of course, much larger protests took place across the country.
Two months later, June 4, 1968, I voted in the California Democratic primary between Eugene McCarthy and Robert Kennedy. I had voted for McCarthy, but also supported Kennedy. A year earlier, I had shook Kennedy's hand during a rally, but had been a little disappointed with his speech, in which he only promised "to do better" in Vietnam. Gene McCarthy seemed less equivocal. I watched Kennedy give his victory speech in Los Angeles around midnight, got ready for bed, when shouting broke out, "The Senator has been shot". For a few moments, it wasn't clear which Senator they meant. Two days later, Robert Kennedy died in hospital.
As with the assassination attempt in Tucson, political feelings were running high in the 1960's. Issues of civil rights, war, free speech, and role of government divided the U. S. left and right. These events tend to leave their marks on the public psyche. In most instances, these and those which followed, the perpetrator was a young male, alienated, angry, confused, lashing out against his circumstances. Unfortunately, he may sometimes have been set off by the rhetoric and bombast of others. You wonder if we ever move forward.
Monday, January 3, 2011
New Year's Day
We all had a very enjoyable New Year's Day with four generations. Vera said she liked the time with her great grandchildren as much as or more than Christmas.
Given that the children are young, they are very well-behaved. The parents do an excellent job with them; much more patient than my own upbringing. I have a pretty strong sense of right and wrong, so the possibility of my correcting them always looms.
The four-year-old climbed on the sofa and knocked a picture off the wall. I told him firmly to get down, and he went off and pouted with hurt feelings for a time. Fortunately, his parents didn't rescue him, and after awhile he returned to the group and we reconciled.
Sometimes I ignore boorish behaviour; sometimes not. A few years ago, I told the grandson not to suck his food off the plate and to use a knife and fork. He was surprised, but did what I asked. He still wears his cap in the house, even to the dinner table. I just absorb this, since no one else seems to notice.
On some occasions, such as Christmas, I also absorb cigarette smoking in the house. The offenders know well my attitude, but apparently assume that they are safe in the circumstances.
The grandson's girlfriend didn't appear for either Christmas or New Year's Day. This is sad, because she misses sharing the occasion with her son, but all we can do is invite her and see what happens.
The holidays were a big success. We escaped healthy, a few pounds heavier, and resolved to accomplish a few things in the new year that we put off in the old.
Given that the children are young, they are very well-behaved. The parents do an excellent job with them; much more patient than my own upbringing. I have a pretty strong sense of right and wrong, so the possibility of my correcting them always looms.
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| Christmas Dinner at Grandma's 1948 |
Sometimes I ignore boorish behaviour; sometimes not. A few years ago, I told the grandson not to suck his food off the plate and to use a knife and fork. He was surprised, but did what I asked. He still wears his cap in the house, even to the dinner table. I just absorb this, since no one else seems to notice.
On some occasions, such as Christmas, I also absorb cigarette smoking in the house. The offenders know well my attitude, but apparently assume that they are safe in the circumstances.
The grandson's girlfriend didn't appear for either Christmas or New Year's Day. This is sad, because she misses sharing the occasion with her son, but all we can do is invite her and see what happens.
The holidays were a big success. We escaped healthy, a few pounds heavier, and resolved to accomplish a few things in the new year that we put off in the old.
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